The following quotes are from THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT, a study by the Environmental Conservation Committee of an oil major.
“The concentration of carbon dioxide increased from an estimated 290 ppm in 1860 to 340 ppm in 1980.
“Pre-industrial atmospheric concentrations could double (i.e. pass 600 ppm) sometime between 2040 and 2080
“The increasing concentration of C02 in the atmosphere is primarily determined by the combustion of fossil fuels.
“The impact of the expected climatic change…would be large at a doubled atmospheric C02 concentration, even larger than any since the end of the last ice age about 12,000 years ago:
- Precipitable water content of the atmosphere would increase by 5-15%, the precipitation rate being increased particularly at higher latitudes of both hemispheres,
- Sea-ice cover of the Arctic would be reduced to a seasonal ice cover,
- Snow cover would change dependent on latitude, though extent is difficult to predict,
- Ice-cap mass balance change: a warming of 3°C would induce a 60-70 cm rise of the global sea level, about half of which would be due to ablation of the Greenland and Antarctic land ice, the rest to thermal expansion of the ocean; a possible subsequent disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would result in a worldwide rise in sea level of 5-6 m,
“The changes may be the greatest in recorded history. They could alter the environment in such a way that habitability would become more suitable in the one area and less suitable in the other area. Adaptation, migration and replacement could be called for .
“The energy industry will clearly need to work out the part it should play in the development of policies and programme s to tackle the whole problem. It will not be appropriate to take the main burden, for the issues are ones that ultimately only governments can tackle, and users have an important role .
“But it has very strong interests at stake and much expertise to contribute, particularly on energy supply and usage. It also has its own reputation to consider, there being much potential for public anxiety and pressure-group activity.”
These are verbatim extracts from a study prepared for the Shell Environmental Conservation Committee [Report Series HSE 88-001] when Shell accounted for 4% of the C02 emitted worldwide from combustion. The study was completed in April 1986 and published in May 1988, a time when Shell was the global leader in scenario-based planning even if it was not always integrated into its Group Planning System.